This is it! Election Day!
For political types, this is about as good as it gets … the excitement, the anticipation. Who will emerge the winners? Will any of the races be decided this week, or will there be run-off elections in November?
For the last 13 weeks, Free Tri-Tip Dinner has produced and published the Skull Survey*, an experiment in forecasting. The Survey is not a public opinion poll, nor is it an exercise similar to “the wisdom of the crowd.”
Instead, the Skull Survey is the distilled, objective opinion of a panel of Calaveras County citizens of the expected share of the vote of the candidates. The panelists are anonymous — that is, while they may know each other in other contexts, no panelist knows who the other panelists are. They are fairly evenly split between the genders, and are diverse geographically. The principal traits sought in a panelist are intelligence and the potential for objective analysis. We cannot thank them enough for their participation.
We have tried to avoid group-think, and panelists have shared information only indirectly through anonymous emails (we had code names!) and the weekly published results of the Survey.
As far as we know, the only other public exercise in estimating the results of this election is the on-line poll conducted by the Calaveras Enterprise. So, for comparison purposes, we also summarize and publish those results along with those of the Skull Survey. Then, when all the votes are in, we’ll examine the relative accuracy of all the estimates. Depending on the results, this could be either just the first Skull Survey or the last!
So, here are the results of the Skull Survey and the Calaveras Enterprise in the race for Sheriff:
– – – – – – – – Skull Survey Calaveras Enterprise
Dibasilio 47.51 44.8
Garrahan 25.20 37.8
Stevens 27.28 17.4
For District Three:
Callaway 45.36 44.5
Oliveira 37.50 45.1
Langan 17.30 10.3
For District Five:
Stopper 36.55 59.4
Giudici 29.07 17.5
Clapp 27.52 18.8
Gustafson 6.86 4.3
Here are the Skull Survey results showing graphically the results over the last 13 weeks:
Thanks for stopping by! Check back often over the next few days for more updates on the election!