(update: first weeks’ results are in — see bottom of story)
Perhaps due to concerns about the other kind, the big story today is Artificial Intelligence.
Computers beat humans in chess. Computers are composing music — still pretty bad, but you get the idea. Everywhere you turn, Artificial Intelligence is in the news.
Free Tri-Tip Dinner says enough already. Let’s try an experiment in Human Intelligence.
Because here comes another absolutely critical, at-the-cross-roads, nothing-will-ever-be-the same election in Calaveras County, and between now and the 2018 Primary ‘Election day’ (a misnomer, since well over half the votes will be cast by then) there are twelve long weeks. And unlike the big-time State and Federal elections, we Calaveras citizens have no horse-race data – no polls, no nothing, suggesting who is winning or losing, fading or falling back, snatching victory (or defeat) from the deadly, razor-sharp jaws of Calaveras politics.
Enter the Skull Survey.
We here at Free Tri-Tip Dinner can’t afford any fancy public opinion polls with highly sophisticated “weighted’ results that everybody hates anyway.
So, instead, we’ve decided to ‘test’ whether Human Intelligence can make up for large sample sizes. The Skull Survey is an average estimate of the current potential share of the vote of the candidates for Sheriff and Supervisor by a panel of individuals who wish to remain anonymous, for obvious reasons.
All are veteran observers in Calaveras politics. Some are current and former elected officials; some have worked on campaigns in the past, but none are working on campaigns this year. They have been asked to participate based on their experience in local politics, and a demonstrated willingness to try and see things as they are, and not as they may wish them to be. Of course, bias is unavoidable – but the experiment is to see whether the panel, collectively over time, will arrive at accurate estimates of the actual vote.
So, obviously, no claims of accuracy, or even ‘scientific rigor’ are claimed — at least not yet. Candidates are advised not to rely on what the Skull Survey may suggest – if it indicates you are winning you should probably not stop campaigning and go home, and vice-versa.
The Skull Survey will be published on Sunday mornings, first on the Free Tri-Tip Dinner’s Facebook page and soon thereafter on FreeTriTipDinner.com.
PS – we have learned that some candidates for local office are appearing on ads on our Facebook page. We have not authorized any ads on that page nor do we receive any revenue from any advertising on our page … we should be so lucky.
Skull Survey — March 11, 2018
District 3 Supervisor
District 5 Supervisor